'Parks and trees will require the same attention as roads and housing by 2050' |
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Research in Vlaardingen shows that greening only works with structural maintenance and long-term investment
Simply planting extra trees is not enough to keep cities cool. That is the conclusion of research by Delft University of Technology (TU Delft) and Erasmus University Rotterdam into the heat resilience of Vlaardingen towards 2050. The researchers argue that greenery should no longer be seen as a standalone measure, but as a full part of urban infrastructure.
| A horse chestnut tree in Julianapark, Nijmegen |
Eleven neighbourhoods in Vlaardingen were analysed for the study. The city centre and harbour districts in particular appear vulnerable to the urban heat island effect. During future heatwaves, temperatures there could become up to four degrees higher than in surrounding rural areas. According to the researchers, this is caused by the combination of extensive paving, limited shade and buildings that retain heat.
Thousands of future scenarios analysed
The municipality of Vlaardingen is already working on plans for more trees and shaded areas. These plans were tested in the study using a calculation model that analysed thousands of future scenarios. Researchers looked at climate change, population growth, housing development, maintenance budgets and tree lifespan.
The study shows that greening only remains effective if maintenance and replacement are organised structurally. When maintenance is postponed too long or dead trees are not quickly replaced, the cooling effect declines rapidly. In some scenarios, heat stress even continues to increase despite additional greenery.
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Greenery should no longer be seen as a standalone measure, but as a full part of urban infrastructure
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Maintenance crucial for cooling
According to the researchers, a 'failure situation' occurs when fewer than 32 percent of trees are replanted or when maintenance is delayed for more than three years. Rising costs can also put pressure on the approach.
The researchers therefore recommend giving greenery the same status as roads and housing. This means working with fixed maintenance cycles, stable budgets and clear agreements on replanting.
Integrating greenery into urban development
The study also shows that greening increasingly needs to become part of urban development projects. In Vlaardingen, combinations of housing development, parking policy, green roofs, green façades and green parking areas were examined to maintain sufficient cool spaces in the city.
At the same time, the researchers point to practical limitations for trees in urban areas. Underground cables and pipes, logistics and limited space can make permanent planting difficult. For that reason, the city centre is also considering mobile trees in containers, combined with seating areas.
In addition to greening, the researchers mention other measures such as temperature sensors, extra shade structures and adapted building materials to better control urban heat.
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In some scenarios, heat stress continues to rise despite additional greenery: a 'failure situation' occurs when fewer than 32 percent of trees are replanted or when maintenance is delayed for more than three years
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This article was previously published on May 6, 2026 on the website of Stad + Groen.
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